All the internal hysteria that's periodically gripped the Barbara Boxer camp as California's longtime U.S. Senate ice maiden came closer than ever to losing her seat? It can probably be set aside.
Anything can happen November 2, 2010. But today's Field Poll shows Boxer adding two percentage points to lead Carly Fiorina by eight points. Field had Babs and Carly tied in March, Babs by three in July, and Babs by six in September.
But here's the more fascinating nugget in the Field Poll which you can peruse here:
Quoting from the poll:
The incumbent benefits from the fact that the poll suggests that Democrats will outnumber Republicans by about five percentage points among all voters statewide next week.
Think about that. That means a huge Republican turnout and a weak Democratic turnout.
Whaddaya mean? Well, Democrats far outnumber Republicans in California.
Yet the Field polling is showing Republicans will only be outnumbered by Dems next week at the polls by five percentage points.
So now you see why the 20 to 25 percent of Californians who are “decline to state” or “independent” are the big swing voting powerhouse.
With Democrats and Republicans only 5 percentage points apart in numbers at the polls (and assuming a similar breakdown in absentee ballots), the decline to states will decide a lot of things next Tuesday.