Update: McOsker's campaign responds.
Janice Hahn has barely had time to find the House cloakroom, and already candidates are lining up to replace her on the L.A. City Council.
Today, Assemblyman Warren Furutani released a poll that shows him neck-and-neck with ex-Councilman Rudy Svorinich — and with a 10-point edge over firefighter union president Pat McOsker.
As with any internal poll, take it with a grain of salt. And then dive right in:
The election is still four months away. The City Clerk announced today that the primary will be held on Nov. 8.
At this stage, a poll is a test of name recognition. It makes sense, intuitively, that Svorinich and Furutani might have an early advantage over McOsker and LAPD Officer Joe Buscaino. The latter two have never run for office, while Svorinich and Furutani are much better known.
Here are the numbers. And again, consider the source:
The poll of 400 likely voters in the 15th District was conducted in June by Goodwin Simon Strategic Research.
Furutani claims a better favorable/unfavorable split than Svorinich (19/5 vs. 25/10).
This early in the race, however, the fight is still over endorsements. In this district, that means labor, and at the moment, that's a battle between Furutani and McOsker.
Furutani was a big UTLA supporter when he was on the LAUSD board, and McOsker leads one of the city's most important public employee unions.
Furutani will no doubt be using this poll to make the case to labor that he's more electable than McOsker is.
Update: John Shallman, McOsker's campaign consultant, issued the following response:
“19% favorable? Is this the best they got? I would have expected him to poll much better than this. Guys who run for office a million times tend to have higher name identification versus first time candidates. I'd put my money on the San Pedro firefighter over the LAUSD Boardmember/Sacramento politician any day.”
McOsker grew up in San Pedro, but until recently was living in Redondo Beach. The battle is joined.
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