We told you that, despite popular lore, Los Angeles was NOT turning into Mexico.
USC seems to have done a lot more real research on the topic, however. The school's Population Dynamics Research Group is projecting that a majority of L.A. county residents will be native born by the end of the year.
That's a first …
… in the entire history of Los Angeles. Yeah, you immigrant haters were always in the wrong town. Now, maybe not so much.
The research projects that by 2030 two-thirds of young adults around here will have been born and raised in California.
Dowell Myers is co-author of “The Generational Future of Los Angeles: Projections to 2030 and Comparisons to Recent Decades:”
It's an extraordinary moment in Los Angeles history — everything we know about LA will change.
The study says immigration to L.A. county peaked in 1990 and has slowed since then, with the projection that two-thirds of these new comers will have more than 20 years worth of experience on United States soil by 2030.
Slow growth among ethic groups will mean a static state in which all of us, even whites, are party of a minority, USC says. A summary:
While the Latino share of the population in the county grew by 10-percentage points in the 1980s, its growth slowed to just a 3.2-percentage point increase from 2000 to 2010. The new projections show the Latino population share rising just two-percentage points per decade through 2030. Conversely, the white population has been slowing its decline from the rapid descent of earlier decades.
Births are way down in L.A. county while the percentage of elderly is expected to increase by more than 18 percent in the next 17 years, the study says.
L.A. is turning into Florida, says USC, with the number of oldsters versus working-age adults increasing from …
… 20 seniors per 100 working-age adults to 36.4 seniors per 100 working-age adults by 2030, posing a burden on the working-age residents far greater than the norm in recent decades.
We are entering a period of “low growth” when it comes to population, USC says. Unless, of course, another wave of Mexicans comes through, in which case some of you will have something to complain about.