George Ajjan Oil, the primary driver of late 20th-century geopolitics, has given way to critical minerals in the 21st century. Elements like cobalt and lithium to rare earth elements have become essential to the proliferation of modern technology: neither batteries, electric vehicles, wind turbines, semiconductors, and advanced military systems can be industrialized without them. The scramble continues, and nations possessing these resources will insist upon having their seat at the table. They will become strategic chokepoints as global competition intensifies, and in this context, Pakistan can emerge as a key player.
The world has looked at Pakistan for decades through the lens of its geostrategic location — situated between rival powers, at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and just beyond the Middle East. It also bears the singular distinction as being the world’s only Muslim-majority state (and an Islamic Republic at that) to possess nuclear weapons. But beneath its soil lies an untapped means of gaining leverage: some of the world’s richest deposits of copper, gold, and potentially lithium and rare earths. The country’s mineral potential, especially in Balochistan, presents Pakistan not only with an economic opportunity but also with geopolitical capital in the face of nations desperate to ensure supply chains for their critical industries.
Case and point for Pakistan: the Reko Diq project, a huge copper and gold deposit near the Iran-Afghanistan border. Although it had been embroiled in legal and political woes, the site now looks to the firm Barrick Gold for stewardship, with significant interest from copper-craving Saudi Arabia. Reko Diq’s revival represents for Pakistan the sweet spot at the intersection of global demand and national development goals. Copper, a generation ago associated with mundane household items like speaker wire and hot water pipes, is now at the center of the fight against climate change. Indispensable for renewable energy infrastructure, power grids, and electric vehicles, it has seen its prices soaring and its supply chains tighten. Result: a prime opportunity for Pakistan via Reko Diq.
Mineral wealth presents opportunities and dangers, as evidenced by today’s conflict zones. Countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (supplying over 70% of the world’s cobalt) and Ukraine (abundant in lithium, titanium, and rare earth elements) serve as sobering examples. Their extensive mineral resources have attracted invasions from neighboring countries and threatened their territorial sovereignty. Pakistan faces similar challenges with resource-rich regions such as Balochistan positioned along the borders of geopolitical flashpoints Iran and Afghanistan. The Pakistani military leadership has successfully navigated these complex security challenges for decades, maintaining stability as a nuclear power and effectively deterring territorial ambitions from others.
If stability rules the day, Pakistan could threaten the current supply chain monopoly. For example, much to the consternation of Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo, China refines most of the world’s rare earths and critical minerals. As a consequence, those nations have invested billions into diversifying the sourcing of their minerals by partnering with the likes of Australia, Chile, and Mongolia. As such, Pakistan could take the “Goldilocks” mean and position itself as a strategic supplier to both East and West. The enormous investments from China, especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), will not be abandoned. However, the country can still pursue avenues for processing and export to Europe and the Americas.
Several key challenges must be addressed directly to realize Pakistan’s mineral potential. Like many mining sectors around the world, Pakistan’s governance has been lackluster: mired in bureaucracy, nepotism, and political meddling. Righting the ship will require regulatory reform, digitization of geological data, and cutting red tape for would-be investors. As far as Balochistan goes, security cannot be ignored, but there is no purely military solution. Mechanisms must emerge that allow tangible benefits to reach local communities—jobs, infrastructure, education. In the 20th century, oil-rich countries had to balance the needs of their populations with the immense wealth that flooded their coffers. The track record has not been great. Pakistan must learn from those mistakes as it sets course to ensure its 21st-century legacy will not be a “mineral curse.” Managed well, its riches hint at something else: a carrot in the form of economic relevance, a much-needed compliment to its stick of nuclear weapons. It’s up to Pakistan’s leaders to thread this needle.
About the author
George Ajjan is an international political strategist and crisis management professional, with over 20 years of experience. He advises heads of state, ministers, officials, and diplomats in some two dozen countries across five continents. He has been cited by the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, the LA Times, the Guardian, the Independent, and the New Yorker, among others.