Written in Partnership with Amir BakianWith the current push toward converting the U.S. energy mix to exclude fossil-fueled systems and replacing them with emissions-free technologies, the present statistics show that the “plug-n-play” game of retirement and replacement is not going as planned. This model would leave citizen ratepayers to suffer with the consequences of the disconnect between policy, politics, and commercially viable development and implementation within energy systems technology and infrastructure.
In the U.S. in 2022, there are plans to take approximately 15GW (nameplate rating) of power plants offline (per the below graph.) These plants consist of those which had been fired by coal, natural gas, nuclear, and petroleum liquids, with over 75% being coal-fired.
For an overall average plant capacity factor of approximately 70%, for these categories of technology, this would represent taking 10-11GW of effective power from the US grid system.
On the other side of this coin, for planned additions to the U.S. power generation capacity, the EIA reports that “replacement” system additions could reach nearly 45GW (as reflected in below graph). What needs to be noted is that this figure is only in terms of “nameplate” system ratings. As such, the “new replacement” systems planned do not reflect the true power delivery capacity.
For example, the wind turbines forecasted at 11.2 GW (as shown in the above figure) will only effectively deliver an estimated 35-40% of that actual power (i.e., 4.3GW). The 17.8GW of solar in the forecast, taking into account the actual capacity of 16-20%, will yield only about 3.2GW. For gas-fired plants, at 70% capacity, then add only 6.4GW, not 9.2. Additionally, battery storage is not power generation and is hence irrelevant in this discussion.
So, in effect, taking 11GW of power generation offline and replacing it with less than 14GW of “new” systems, only 50% of which have any reliability (i.e., natural gas), in the best-case scenario, gives only a slim margin for upset, error or overrun. This is barely a “replacement” if at all, and carries little to no contingency.
What is glaring here is that for these numbers to have any acceptability, it would have to be assumed that population growth and the advance of the state of the art of electrification technologies (i.e., private cars, public transport, home appliances, personal devices, etc.) don’t happen. It is well understood that neither of these two key factors are “stagnant,” let alone many others contributing to the continual increase in demand for electrical power across not only the U.S. but the world as a whole.
But again, assuming the quantities forecasted are sufficient, then one needs to look at the “plan” – because the plan itself is not coming to fruition. The above numbers are based upon the forecast, but in actual fact, to date, 8.6GW (nameplate, ~6GW effective), or about 60% of the 2022 target, of existing power plants have been decommissioned.
However, for the claimed progress of 13.7GW of newly installed systems, these would only be capable of delivering about 5.7GW in actual operations. This shows that not only is the “replacement program” not keeping up, but that the systems into which the capital is being invested are inferior in terms of power delivery performance, reliability and design life.
In reality, the planned versus actual power plant additions are lagging behind considerably. Further, the only reliable element of the program is the natural gas systems. These two aspects alone suggest that the program of “greening America’s energy mix” is failing, which is disappointing given the level of attention, corporate investment, government subsidy funding, and politicization it has received. This program was supposed to save the environment and the people of the planet as an intervention; meanwhile, it cannot even tread water, let alone swim across the proverbial pond of global warming.
This fact is evidenced by the media reports that even a state as progressive as California, is reneging on its green commitments. As if, now when the rubber hits the road and it’s time to close power plants, it’s suddenly too inconvenient to do so. One cannot do anything but sympathize with decision-makers in that state in their dilemma of either keeping their word or robbing their constituents of quality of life. Either way, this will cost them votes.
There’s one feasible outcome regarding this pitiful energy forecast. While it’s easy to throw stones, no problem is really a problem unless it carries a companion solution.
So here it is:
First, there does exist a ready and available, sustainable, clean, and emissions-free energy system.
Second, this system is as compact, efficient, reliable, scalable, and flexible as nuclear power, yet burns no fuel and creates no toxic waste.
Third, this system is deployable using rudimentary construction methodologies, utilizes no complicated materials, and will not render land masses inaccessible or unusable.
And last, but not least, this system delivers energy at a level of hundreds of times its demand for operation. Yes, it’s over-unity– meaning more out than in!
Does this sound like a dream? Wake up to the reality of the land-based, wave-driven, dam-free hydropower system created by Kenneth W. Welch Jr.
His refined embodiments of the original SeaDog Systems Wave Energy Stalling Device, enhanced by system additions, such as the Wave Energy Fulcrum Pond Pounder and X-Wave Tank System, by his firm Global Oceanic Designs, encompasses all of the aforementioned power capacity.
The new power pond system is being offered to developers in a variety of embodiments and applications, whether in electrical power generation, freshwater treatment/desalination, or as fluid power for liquids pumping, irrigation or driving transportation systems.
The packaging of these applications for use by these various industries is being undertaken by Diamond Infrastructure Development, Inc. (DIDI), to whom Mr. Welch has conveyed technology license control under their joint contract, between SeaDog Systems, Inc., Global Oceanic Designs. Inc. and DIDI. All of the commercialization, licensing and technical support of these breakthrough energy systems is being championed by DIDI on behalf of those who purchase licensing opportunities.
The sustainability of these systems is unmatched by any technology that attempts to call itself “green” or “renewable.” Imagine entire cities powered by a subterranean system, out of sight, out of mind, on an aggregate footprint of a square mile or less. The rating of such a system would be approximately 3GW (3,000,000 kW) which is enough power generation to support a population of over 2.4 million people. Add to that the commerce, municipal and leisure electrical power support requirements, and that system will supply a population of 1.5 million while supporting the energy needs of its local economy.
It’s easy to imagine that any of the new “eco-green” master-planned city or community concepts could easily benefit from such an energy system. Simply put these systems underground, beneath the commercial district, under the golf course or the central park. Out of sight, out of mind– and in no one’s backyard.
In addition, these systems are perfect companions to the municipal water system, both in terms of driving treatment, as well as providing storage. No more need for water towers, with these systems under your feet.
Whether greenfield new development, or brownfield upgrade, or infrastructure re-purposing, this technology has the flexibility and portability to allow for rapid deployment, or retrofit, with an incredibly short lead time from the investment decision point to the event of first power delivery.
So, as regulatory decisions with policymakers attempting to sort out their dilemmas, and the utility companies simply trying to keep up with the waves of change while remaining commercially afloat, it should be known that the opportunity for clean, sustainable, and profitable energy lies at the fingertips of the industry – shovel ready, capital competitive, and ticks every box on the “Green Scorecard.”
So, what are you waiting for? As a citizen, ask your local government why these systems aren’t in place. As a shareholder, ask your Board why they are wasting money on inferior low rate of return investments? As an activist for the benefit of the planet, ask yourself, why are we not advocating for real, clean solutions?
Here’s the answer: Contact DIDI, or Global Oceanic Designs, Inc. or SeaDog Systems, Inc. to learn more about this answer. Wave driven, Over-Unity, Power and Water Systems will be the future of alternative energy. A cold-fusion replacement to bigger, and bigger fire. You know what this means… Nuclear Fusion! Bigger and bigger fire!
Sources Cited:
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=table_6_06
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