Worst news yet for pot-legalization backers: Prop. 19 is losing in a poll this week that had been commissioned by ABC7 and other news outlets. For the first time in such a "robo" poll, the cannabis effort was losing 46 percent (no) to 44 percent (yes) less than a week from the election.
Here's why it's a bummer, man:
Legalization backers have claimed that regular, in-person, phone-call polls were more likely to over-represent pot foes because weed backers would be too shy to admit to a human they were voting to legalize it. And so ...
... It was true that polls that used automated, computer voices and asked potential voters to simply press a button for their candidate or cause tended to show Prop. 19 in a better light than traditional surveys.
We had called it the "Broadus Effect," named in honor of chief stoner Snoop Dogg, a.k.a. Calvin Broadus (though we have a hard time imagining him being shy about his enthusiasm for good weed).
The No on Prop. 19 campaign stated with some glee Wednesday that "SurveyUSA today released a new poll which, for the first time in their 7 tracking polls, shows more voters opposed to Prop 19 than in support."
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Among voters contacted via home phones only the numbers were 50 percent against, 44 percent for.
Among mobile-phone respondents the script was flipped, 48 percent yes, 36 percent no.
The question is whether these folks, who tend to skew younger, will actually show up to the polls. Senior citizens, who vote like clockwork, are opposed two to one.