A new Reuters/Ipsos Poll shows that Big Oil-funded Proposition 23, the November ballot measure that seeks to suspend California's global climate change law, is heading for almost certain defeat, with 49 percent of those polled opposing the initiative and 37 percent favoring it.
Reuters/Ipsos came up with a far different result compared to a recent Public Policy Institute of California poll, which showed a much closer race: 43 percent of likely voters favored Proposition 23, 42 percent opposed it and 15 percent didn't know how they would vote.
Either way, political observers say that at this late stage in the game, the "Yes on 23" campaign faces a difficult challenge.
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Ballot measures are always difficult to pass in California, say experts, and usually need at least 50 percent of likely voters supporting it in the polls in the final month of a campaign for it to pass on election day.
So far, the "No on 23" campaign appears to be effective in convincing voters that the ballot measure would actually hurt job creation in California, noting that clean-tech industries are poised to blossom in the Golden State under the global climate change law.
Experts also say that what voters think will better stimulate job growth in California, not necessarily what's best for the environment, will ultimately decide the fate of Proposition 23.
Contact Patrick Range McDonald at firstname.lastname@example.org.