While the margin is getting tighter, a new Field Poll, released this morning, finds that Proposition 8 will lose on Election Day. The poll, however, shows declining support for the "No on 8" campaign over the past month, which is when the "Yes on 8" side started a vigorous TV ad campaign. Based on the numbers, voter turn out in California for the presidential election could be a deciding factor in the passage or defeat of the ballot measure that will eliminate the right of gays and lesbians to legally marry.
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The Field Poll shows, among many things, that 73 percent of likely Obama voters would not support Proposition 8. 21 percent would vote "yes" and 6 percent are undecided. During the summer, Sen. Barack Obama said he was against the ballot measure, while Senator John McCain said he was for it. 84 percent of likely McCain voters would support Proposition 8, while 13 percent would vote "no" and 3 percent are undecided.
But "early voter" findings from the Field Poll show that Proposition 8 is winning, with 48 percent of "early/mail in" voters marking the "yes" box and 44 percent casting "no" votes. Also, people who have already voted fell squarely in the "yes" camp--50 percent voted "yes" and 44 percent voted "no."
Early voting started on October 15 in California, around the same time the "Yes on 8" campaign was making a strong surge with TV ads and "No on 8" campaign leadership was reorganizing itself and scrambling to raise money. The "No on 8" campaign seemed unprepared for the early voting process, which could be a contributing factor to the passage of Proposition 8 if it's not defeated at the polls on Tuesday, November 4.
Contact Patrick Range McDonald at email@example.com.