Election '08: Will Obama Beat 325?


I've got a lot of nervous friends. They refuse to believe what now seems obvious: an imploded Republican Party facing a veritable electoral Waterloo on Tuesday.

They fret.

They worry.

They wonder aloud about dirty tricks, hinky voting machines, and the Bradley Effect.

I have a different view.

I worry only that Barack Obama will not rack up more than 325 electoral votes. Something like 370 would be more comfortable.

My friends in Las Vegas who approach professional gambling as mathematically sound "short-term investments" tell me they are willing to put up $150k to win $20k on an Obama victory. That's how confident they are. That, I find, is very re-assuring.

But my biggest charge tonight comes from seeing Arizona -- home state to John McCain -- having just turned from bright red to pink, from solid McCain to barely leaning McCain. Indeed, the latest polls of Arizona now show Barack Obama trailing by a slim 3 points -- within the margin of error.

So that's what I'll be looking for Tuesday night. I want to see the McCain defeat capped off with the humiliating loss of his own home state.

What could be better? (Answer: Alaska following suit).

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