After Gore, the Deluge
Gore is gone, and the race for the Democratic nomination in 2004 is so wide open, says one Democratic pollster, that the plausibility of why-not-me candidacies has just exploded.
This isnt 1992, when Mario Cuomos decision not to run failed to prompt any prominent national Democrats whod been holding back to hop into the race. Running against Bush 43, apparently, is not the deterrent that running against Bush 41 once was. (If anything, says the pollster, this years crop may have overlearned the lesson of 1992.) Gephardt, Lieberman, Kerry, Edwards, Dean -- and perhaps Daschle, Dodd and some wild cards like Joe Biden, Gary Hart, Al Sharpton and former NATO commander Wesley Clark -- this is the Democrats A-team.
Truth be told, though, this isnt much of an A-team. These are, more precisely the A-players on a team thats underdeveloped. In particular, it has only one (former) governor, Vermonts Howard Dean. In the Republican blowout of 1994, the Democrats lost nearly 100 statewide elected officials, including an entire generation of governors who should be heading this list.
Its too early to speak with any confidence about the fate of individual candidacies, but not too early to speak about what Democratic voters are looking for. They want a candidate with serious national-security bona fides -- which means, a sober and aggressive approach to deterring terrorism. They want a candidate who backs the global rule of law, who opposes the pre-emptive unilateralism of the administration and its diversionary, reckless war with Iraq. They want a candidate with an economic policy that helps working-class, middle-class and poor Americans, that scales back the power of corporations so that they are no longer a law unto themselves. They want real national health insurance, and with Gore out of the race, former Governor Dean will not long have this issue to himself.
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By these standards, its clear why Massachusetts Senator John Kerry may have a bit of a jump on the rest of the field. His Vietnam medals -- and his early leadership of Viet Vets Against the War -- strike just the right balance for the tough-dove party the Democrats are becoming. Kerrys problem is that hes more a liberal than a populist: tough on Wall Street when the situation demands it, but awkward on (if not alien to) Main Street.
The two congressional leaders have different strengths and similar liabilities. Gores withdrawal, says one veteran party operative, creates a huge, gaping hole for the bland caucus, and that probably helps Gephardt. Dick certainly picks up some of Gores institutional backing. On the basis of his longstanding support for fair trade, Gephardt can plausibly hope to win support from manufacturing unions like the United Auto Workers, but his backing among the increasingly dominant service-sector unions is more iffy. (Gephardt is really nowhere with us, says a leading official of one such union.) Any candidate who can win the national AFL-CIOs endorsement will have a leg up on the field, but winning that endorsement, which requires two-thirds support from member unions, will be arduous. Union insiders arent thrilled that Gephardt failed to re-take the House in four attempts, or that to the nation, hes an Old Beltway Face. Many rank-and-file Democrats -- unionists and non-unionists alike -- dont much cotton to Gephardts cheerleading for Bushs go-it-alone Iraqi offensive.
Tom Daschle is a bit of a conundrum -- clearly among the smartest and most articulate of Democratic hopefuls, he has nonetheless handicapped himself by his repeated failures of imagination and nerve. With Gephardt, he was the architect of the partys themeless 2002 campaign. Responsible to his colleagues for raising money on K Street and in the Silicon Valley, he kept the party from pushing for serious corporate reform earlier this year, thus neutralizing what should have been a good Democratic issue. His initial non-reaction to Trent Lotts affirmation of apartheid -- in which personal courtesy between leaders somehow trumped all moral indignation -- suggests a pol whos played inside ball for so long hes lost touch with the world outside the Beltway.
Connecticuts Joe Lieberman is, of course, the biggest immediate beneficiary of Gores decision. Hes the darling of the center-right Democratic Leadership Council (DLC), which could pose a problem for other DLC-ish candidates such as John Edwards. Hawkish in a dovish party, more aligned with Wall Street and its trade policies (not to mention its resistance to reform legislation) than his fellow candidates, an instinctual anti-populist, Lieberman seems highly unlikely to win the nomination. His candidacy may well resemble that of Henry Scoop Jackson, the Washington senator whose 1976 primary bid appealed to the minority of party voters who were defense hawks -- and hardly anyone else.
The idea of John Edwards, the senator from North Carolina, has been exciting party insiders since he first won election in 1998. Hes the child of working-class parents, a trial lawyer with a legendary ability to win big settlements for workers mangled by their corporate employers. Hes Southern, sophisticated yet somewhat populist, and, in a party grasping at straws, the nearest thing the Democrats have to the next Clinton -- minus the brilliance, however. The downside of this fresh-face business is that Edwards remains a rookie. Hes begun to sound some decent notes on foreign policy; his emerging economic program is all over the map (he favors a progressive tax cut but also across-the-board budget cutbacks that could well worsen the downturn). Hes run for office a grand total of one time. In the end, its hard to believe that Edwards isnt really running for vice president.
Outgoing Foreign Relations Committee chairman Joe Biden and exiled-to-Colorado former Senator Gary Hart arent exactly newcomers; indeed, each was compelled to drop out of the 1988 presidential race as the result of scandals (in Harts case, concerning his private life; in Bidens, his fictitious life -- he had appropriated some of British pol Neil Kinnocks autobiography into his own stump speech). These long shots are testing just how wide the window for national-security candidates actually is. Harts credentials are the more impressive: He co-chaired a terrorism commission that warned the nation of possible al Qaeda attacks before 911, and hes a trenchant critic of Bushs go-it-alone obsessions.
When it comes to national-security candidates, though, Hart, Biden and Kerry -- and George W. Bush -- all take a back seat to Wesley Clark, Bill Clintons fellow Arkansan and Rhodes scholar, who as NATO commander is linked to both the idea of humanitarian intervention and its successful application in Kosovo. Clark is a Democrat whos reportedly not all that crazy about Bushs foreign adventurism -- and that about exhausts what we know of him. (Its worth recalling that the liberal Americans for Democratic Action, just after its founding in 1947, spent its first months trying to recruit a prominent general with no discernible political record to challenge Harry Truman in the Democratic primaries. Dwight Eisenhower declined, though four years later he announced he was a Republican and won the White House.) Clarks operatives have been meeting with Washington political players in recent weeks; for now, his intentions are somewhat clearer than his beliefs.
General Clarks intentions, however, are a lot less clear than the Reverend Als. While Sharptons racial demagogics have grown less noxious and genuinely dangerous than they were 15 years ago, he has still to repudiate his onetime incitements to violence. His race-based candidacy could take much of the black vote out of play in the primaries, accentuating a racial rift that could have potentially disastrous consequences for the party and its eventual nominee.
What the field doesnt have is a Beltway maverick, someone like Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, a good-government type whose process liberalism might play well in Iowa and New Hampshire. Feingolds a Reform Jew and Liebermans Orthodox, rendering the Reconstructionists a key swing constituency. I hope that clears everything up.
A version of this article has appeared in The American Prospect.
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