But the race has already tightened.
Rasmussen has Brown trailing 48 to 45, which is well within the margin-of-error. A CNN-Time poll has Whitman up 48 to 46. A strange, though oddly hopeful data point for Brown: He's winning among voters 50 and older. As Swing State Project notes, So maybe that "remember the 70s, when things didn't suck so much?" advertising scheme makes sense in that context.
This is a good sign for Brown because older people vote, and Democrats' biggest problem this fall is going to be a massive enthusiasm gap: Republicans can't wait for Election Day, so they can go vote out the Muslim Kenyan and his socialist pals, while Democrats are having trouble getting excited.
In the Senate race, Barbara Boxer clings to a narrow lead over Carly Fiorina in the CNN/Time poll.
As we noted this week, Proposition 19, the pot legalization initiative, is also holding on to a narrow lead.