Caltrans hotly disputes that, but Newton is backed up by the Southern California Association of Governments, which has concluded that the vast investment in carpool lanes has failed to change travelers' behavior. The agency's most recent transportation plan states that building out the system has not resulted in more carpooling as a share of overall traffic. Martin Wachs, a principal transportation researcher at the Rand Corporation, noted that the vast majority of "carpools" are actually members of the same household.
Carpool lanes were all the rage in the transportation world about 25 years ago. Given the slow pace of bureaucracies, they remain a high priority for transportation agencies. Among researchers, however, they have fallen out of favor.
Related Content
More About
Now the hot topic is toll lanes. With congestion tolls, drivers could choose to sit in traffic or pay $2 or $4 or $10 for a congestion-free ride in the carpool lane.
"If you ask most people who study congestion professionally what we should do, they usually say you need tolls," says Michael Manville, a researcher at UCLA. "For various political reasons, that's not something policy has caught up with."
Charging drivers to use a freeway is a tough sell. But where there is high demand, freeways cannot be both free and free-flowing, researchers argue.
"The roads are scarce. ... If you don't charge for it you're going to get queueing," Manville says. "You see it every morning. For whatever reason politically, we have decided to have Soviet-style freeways."
Despite stiff resistance to the idea, the MTA has taken some tentative steps in the direction of congestion pricing. The agency plans to launch a pilot project on the 110 freeway in the fall of 2012.
Moore, a staunch supporter of congestion pricing, suggests that completing the carpool network through the Sepulveda Pass will help reduce congestion if MTA is planning someday to convert the carpool system to tolls.
But even if it doesn't, Moore argues, that doesn't make the project a waste of money. It will add capacity. That will mean more economic activity — more trips to school, to work, to the dentist. All of that is good. Commuters just shouldn't expect to get there any faster.
"If you're spending money to add capacity to a very congested facility, the benefits have always swamped the costs," Moore says. "The reason people are surprised that there aren't congestion improvements is that we keep telling them there will be. And we should stop."