Says Miscikowski, "They need some showing of fundraising accomplishments by the end of this year."
Whoever joins the pack vying to replace Villaraigosa will be taking the ride of their political lives in what could turn out to be a chaotic free-for-all. Says Hertzberg, "It's going to be one for the history books."
PHOTO BY TED SOQUI
Rick Caruso
PHOTO BY TED SOQUI
Eric Garcetti
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L.A. Weekly asked six political veterans to rank, from 1 to 10, the chances of eight official and possible candidates becoming mayor in 2013. A hands-down winner scores a 10, while someone with no chance of becoming mayor gets a 1.
We also asked the veterans: Who has the skills to handle the budget and unions; what will their critics say if they run; how well will each do with fundraising; and which Villaraigosa mistake is each most likely to repeat?
The six experts weighing in are Frank Gilliam, a political science and public policy professor and dean of UCLA's School of Public Affairs; Ron Kaye, former Los Angeles Daily News editor turned political blogger and activist; Matt Klink, a Republican political strategist; Jaime Regalado, director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State L.A.; Richard Riordan, former mayor; and Garry South, a Democratic political strategist. [Note: Kaye refused to rank anyone higher than a 4, saying things are too volatile. Two weeks after participating, Riordan endorsed unannounced candidate Beutner.]
Austin Beutner co-founded investment banking firm Evercore Partners. He suffered a near-fatal biking accident in 2007 and re-examined his life. A little more than a year ago, Beutner went to work for Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa as "jobs czar," with an annual salary of $1. Soon, Villaraigosa appointed Beutner interim general manager of the troubled Department of Water and Power. Now he's exploring a mayoral run. Was the gig just a quick tutorial on city government, to help beef up his political résumé? Beutner is married with four children and has lived in Los Angeles for more than 10 years.
Beutner is tied for fourth in the field of eight.
Gilliam gives him a 7, saying Beutner is "my dark-horse candidate. He has just enough experience to understand how the city works ... smart, smart guy." Critics will describe Beutner as a "hatchet man" intent on cutting city government. "He's seen really up-close what Antonio has done wrong, and he won't repeat that."
Kaye gives him a 1. "He isn't political at all. He has no instinct for politics, as much as he would like to be mayor." Beutner understands budgetary problems, but "he's shown no willingness to confront the unions." Critics will say he's "lived off the failure of corporations as an investment banker and that he has no real enthusiasm for the public." But "I don't think he'll repeat Antonio in any way. He's not a playboy, he's not stupid."
Klink gives him a 7. Beutner's big bucks automatically make him a force. "He doesn't have a lot of name recognition," but can handle the budget and the unions. Critics will ask if Beutner "can relate to the common man."
Regalado gives him a 5. "He's an unknown to city voters. ... But he can fund his own campaign, and he can teach people who he is." It's unclear if he can fix the budget and deal with unions: "His real challenge will be to befriend the council and bring them into his orbit." Critics will say "he doesn't have any relationships to help make the city run."
Riordan gives him a 9. A friend of Beutner's, Riordan says, "He's exactly what the city needs. He's a very strong manager." He can handle the budget and unions: "I've seen him in action in downtown." Critics will focus on his wealth and research his investments. "Beutner would be the total opposite of Villaraigosa."
South gives him a 1. Voters won't take him seriously, nor is it clear whether he can handle the budget and unions. "Who is he? Apparently, rich," so he "can write himself a big, fat check." Critics will hammer him over working for Villaraigosa. "He gets tagged for all of [the mayor's] mistakes. You carry their baggage."
Rick Caruso is one of the "50 Wealthiest Angelenos" as identified by the L.A. Business Journal, and the developer of the Grove and the Americana at Brand. A graduate of Pepperdine University School of Law, he had a 2010 net worth of nearly $2 billion. Republican Caruso may hope to follow in the footsteps of Riordan, promising to be a solid manager and fiscal ward. He served on the Police Commission when it recommended Bill Bratton as police chief. Considered charming by some and arrogant by others, he is an L.A. native whose father founded Dollar Rent-a-Car. He crossed party lines in 2010 to back Jerry Brown. He's married with four children.
Caruso is third in the field of eight.
Gilliam gives him an 8. Caruso can "appeal to voters as a reformer and a successful businessman." But, "The same thing that makes him strong makes him weak — that he's a developer." Will Caruso be like Villaraigosa? "The mistake he'll make is vanity."
Kaye gives him a 2. "He's got unlimited money. ... He would be able to create a stir, and he has a reputation as a businessman who can get things moving." He can fix the budget and deal with unions, but critics will say "he doesn't know how to govern anything." Caruso's capable of spending $50 million, with other candidates looking to raise at least $3 million. He may repeat Villaraigosa's mistake of "being out of touch with the masses of people."
