Calm Down. SAG Will Not Be a WGA Strike Sequel.

But I say this is not the proper time or place to deal with that. Let the two unions stage a cage match after Hollywood gets back to work. Finding itself SAG’s target gave AFTRA more credit than it deserved. And so it emboldened AFTRA leadership to nip at SAG’s heels.

AFTRA president Roberta Reardon came up with a pitiful excuse to justify what was clearly a predetermined decision not to bargain alongside SAG. Instead, AFTRA truly made a deal with the devil in order to do AMPTP’s bidding. AFTRA relentlessly villified the bigger actors guild’s current leadership, which continues even now. Unfortunately, SAG bit back — and the result has been spin and propaganda from both sides, which is unsavory and unnecessary.

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The "Two Allens": SAG's Doug Allen and Alan Rosenberg want the moguls to get involved.

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AFTRA also added insult to injury by starting this terrible blood sport of pitting Big Actor vs. Big Actor, even though none of these superstars are affected. Most have not worked under AFTRA’s contract for eons, and they have top agents who negotiate their individual deals. Nonetheless, AFTRA was the first to officially e-mail members and media a graphic of Sally Field and James Cromwell, et al., supporting the deal. Yes, AFTRA played the emotion card by spotlighting Field, the woman who won an Oscar for her portrayal of union organizer Norma Rae. (But, interestingly, the e-mail sent to members announcing her support was sent to “Everyone (MinusLA).” Hmm.

Guild contracts are all about strength in numbers, the power of collective bargaining and looking out for the little guys. In entertainment, they’re about protecting residuals, which allow creatives to lead middle-class lives. They’re not about Tom Hanks, Jack Nicholson or George Clooney.

Do these A-listers have the right to express an opinion? Of course. Do their names carry weight? Sure. Are they relevant to this discussion? Hardly. I’d so much rather see all the superstars collectively call the moguls and put pressure on AMPTP to deal seriously with SAG. Instead, pro-AMPTP factions are out and about in Hollywood, claiming that SAG has shut down the town.

I don’t know how that’s possible. The Hollywood CEOs own the means of production, so only they have the power to stop principal photography on big studio films, based on their own “fear” of a looming actors strike. But there is no evidence that the guild is contemplating such a labor action. So that purported fear is either irrational or manipulative.

As for the negotiations between SAG and AMPTP, they are at a complete standstill. SAG national executive director Doug Allen recently broke his media blackout to make clear that it’s not SAG that has been stalling. But when AMPTP-SAG talks were stopped and then restarted, the big media cartel forced the actors guild to waste weeks negotiating up from ground zero. How is that fair pattern bargaining?

Yet, the moguls demand SAG settle for the contract terms accepted by every other guild, especially on new media. That’s where the writers chose to draw their line in the sand, however faint, after failing to make lucrative agreements for each new technology that came along — first VHS, then DVDs, now streaming and downloading.

Had the Hollywood CEOs been honest and open to renegotiate the contract terms each time a new format caught on, these guild negotiations wouldn’t be so arduous. Instead, there are years and years of resentment to contend with, as well as an infamously unmovable AMPTP force, soon-to-retire Nick Counter. The writers got a little, but not a lot, last spring. Now it’s SAG’s turn to try for a little more, which, under a “favored nations” verbal agreement, will trickle down to WGA and DGA.

So where are the moguls themselves in all this? Nowhere. Neither Peter Chernin (News Corp/Fox) nor Bob Iger (Disney) nor Les Moonves (CBS), who all, at one time or another, took leadership roles during the WGA strike settlement, will volunteer to get involved. (See accompanying story.)

It would seem, on the surface, that the moguls hold all the cards since they decide when Hollywood gets back to work, how much actors will be paid and the conditions under which they will work. So, at some point soon, probably on or around July 8, AMPTP will pull the same maneuver it did with WGA (and even with SAG back on May 6), and walk out while issuing an ultimatum.

SAG, for its part, can start to organize rolling actor sickouts to delay TV and studio productions. It can threaten a boycott of the Emmys. And most moguls will admit they can’t keep a lid on movie production forever and need to start principal photography on many projects no later than September 1.

In addition, the Hollywood CEOs still have hanging over their heads those hefty force majeure liabilities, ranging from $10M to $60M per company left over from the writers strike and payable to SAG, which has offered to engage in settlement talks if progress on the contract is made. Moreover, SAG can start meeting with big institutional investors who own sizable stakes in the big media companies.