Conquest Games
Just when Iraq gets ugly, neocons talk of taking over the world
After Donnelly summarized his paper at the AEI conference, Steven Metz, director of research at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute, spoke and, in a rather polite fashion, said Donnelly was nuts. He noted that the neocons’ campaign was predicated on three fundamental assumptions: that an outside force, such as the United States, can play a decisive role in removing obstacles to democracy in the Middle East; that a democratic Middle East is worth the costs and will be more amenable to U.S. interests and less supportive of fundamentalist terrorism; and that a democratic Iraq can be a catalyst for democracy in the region. None of these assumptions, he suggested, is grounded in fact. Outside nations played important but not decisive roles in the democratization of Latin America and Eastern Europe, Metz noted. New and fragile democratic governments in the Middle East might reinforce themselves by pandering to their citizens and adopting anti-American positions. And there’s no telling if a democratic Iraq — if one comes to be — can serve as a model for its neighbors. “I hope this is true,” Metz said. “But we have not debated the analysis — whether this is true . . . We’ve gone barreling into this based on assumptions.” Translated: You neocon guys have no idea what you’re talking about; you’re wishing, not thinking.
With Saddam Hussein’s supposed WMD stockpiles still MIA, Donnelly said, “The only argument [for the war] that will stand the test of time is the transformation/liberation argument.” In other words, since Bush screwed the pooch on WMD, the way he can now justify this high-cost war and occupation is by embracing the neocons’ long-term goals, which just so happen to commit the United States to expanding its military presence even more in the Middle East. But this is ass backwards. Rush into a war (for no good immediate reason), ignore the signs of fundamental trouble, and then redefine the mess as progress in the first step of a noble crusade that compels the United States to mess about further in the Middle East. Say what you want about the neocons; these guys have chutzpah.
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