Missing Evidence

Neither Blix nor anyone else at the U.N. thinks that Saddam Hussein is “innocent.” The mere suggestion will raise the same type of sardonic smile as President Bush’s description of Ariel Sharon as “a man of peace.” But none of them is prepared to trigger a war that would kill thousands, or hundreds of thousands, and have ripple effects across the region and the world, simply because a fundamentalist White House truly, deeply and sincerely believes that Iraq is guilty. Washington‘s hostile reaction to this skepticism has converted passive support from other countries into active opposition.

The result has been to make it even harder for Colin Powell to use his charms on his foreign colleagues. Indeed, so fevered are the hawks in the White House that Powell himself has had to abandon his usual tact and make threatening noises to cover his back with the fundamentalists.

So where are we? Despite, or rather because of, the bluster from the White House, it has become less likely that there will be a U.N. resolution for war. Without that resolution, many crucial countries, such as Turkey and neighboring Arab states, may demur at lending support. Certainly if the U.S. goes ahead without the resolution, it will be ostentatiously ripping up the U.N. Charter and the corpus of international law.

Without those allies, the military cost, both in dollars and body bags, will go up, and the American public, whom polls show to be already deeply skeptical of any go-it-alone venture, may react badly. Is this administration so fundamentalist that it would risk the chances of a second term for a war on Iraq? We can hope not -- but on the evidence so far, I wouldn’t bet the shop.