The Case Against the War

Waging a pre-emptive war against Iraq would likely unleash all sorts of dangerous forces in the region and the world. It would, to begin with, create the one set of conditions in which Iraq under attack would be inclined to use the most destructive weaponry at its disposal or to allow the main enemies of the United States to gain access to such weaponry.

Other dangerous side effects that should give pause to the war makers in Washington: an Islamic coup in Pakistan leading to a regional war with India in which both sides have nuclear weapons; escalating oil prices triggering a world depression; civil strife in the Middle East, with anti-West regime changes in Saudi Arabia and Egypt; an intercivilizational holy war between Islam and the West (which would amount to an unintended endorsement of Osama bin Laden‘s approach to world history!); and possibly most serious of all, a loss of international support for the struggle against the persisting al Qaeda threat, which should remain the overriding security concern of the White House.

It is important to contrast the American success in building support around the world for the Gulf War, and more recently, in relation to the war against Afghanistan, with its pronounced failure to gain international backing for a new war against Iraq. To disrupt the al Qaeda network seems justifiable and necessary, given its visionary world-view and its genocidal tactics; such an adversary, fully prepared to pursue suicidal missions, cannot be deterred. But to transpose such reasoning to Iraq is to confuse the issue. Unlike al Qaeda, Iraq can be deterred, and if not, is acutely vulnerable to retaliatory violence, and will remain so for as far ahead as it is possible to see. The case for pre-emptive war is without substance and should be abandoned. If the White House defiantly goes ahead with its war plans, the United States would find itself cast in the role of being a menace to world order, an enemy of humanity, as well as being guilty of Crimes Against the Peace in a Nuremberg sense.

We are left with the question as to what should be done. Both sides would serve their national interest, as well as the global interest, by backing off, allowing a revival of inspection under responsible U.N. auspices that generated international confidence without encroaching excessively on Iraqi sovereignty. Such a solution would be a great victory for peace, for constructive diplomacy and a multilateral approach, and for the United Nations. It would also allow the United States to re-focus on the real threat to security arising from al Qaeda’s continuing dedication to its anti-American jihad.

Richard Falk is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of International Law at Princeton.